Tuesday, November 18, 2008

It's the Business Model Stupid

First a couple of links and then some directly obtained information.
Hundreds of Independents Are Going Out of Business
Is this the state of our Union? 

 I use Amsoil in my vehicles.  I began using it before I received information about trucks running on Amsoil for 1 million miles, without needing an oil change.  I actually have the contact info for a van owner in Ohio that did this.  What it took was the 100% synthetic oil, a higher quality air and oil filter, and a supplemental oil filter.  What a long-time Amsoil user explained to me is that there are 2 places where an engine takes in impurities that can cause it to wear:  the air intake; the fuel system.    The manufacturers deliberately install a lower grade air filter that allows a larger size micro-particles to enter the combustion system.   The manufacturers also install a lower grade oil and oil filter that requires changing every 90 days, knowing that the drivers are going to exceed these parameters.  Additionally the manufacturers recommend that the vehicle be run on 87 Octane fuel which will result in more particles reaching the internal combustion engine.  The result is  wearing on the cylinder walls and a reduction in performance over tens of thousands of miles that while noticeable, does not void the drive-train warranty.

Within 2-3 years of purchasing a new vehicle, the victim owner will be in the dealership to receive an oil change, transmission oil change, and/or fuel system clean-out where they will be offered a test drive or a loaner while they wait for their vehicle.   The loaner or test vehicle drives just that much better......than their used car and they just might start to want a new model.   




What do all of above fuels have in common over gasoline?    Engines run on the above fuels will last 3-4 times as long as an engine that is run on gasoline.


I drive a vehicle with a 5.4 Ford Triton engine that has never seen gasoline.  It is Compressed Natural Gas 90% Methane rated at 120/130 Octane.   It was a local utility company fleet vehicle.   I had a long discussion with a rep from the utility company who had pulled his hair out from more than a decade trying to get Ford , GM and Chrysler two to work with DTE Michcon to facilitate CNG technology and vehicles into the fleet and consumer market.  Why?  Because DTE Michcon actually has Methane producing wells in Michigan and tapping into the energy needs of the transportation industry was about the only way for them to sell more energy/natural gas in Michigan, with heating systems becoming more efficient and houses being more insulated than they used to be.  


But while Ford would sell DTE - Michcon 100's of E350's at a time.   Ford did not seem interested in introducing the vehicles to the consumer market and selling through their dealerships without a markup of several thousand dollars over the gasoline version.     I told my utility company rep about running into guy from the county motor pool who told me that they don't have to change the oil on the natural gas vehicles and that they have never had to do any maintenance on the engines.    The utility company rep confirmed that experience and added that the engines burned cooler on CNG and lasted 3-4 times as long as the engines that were run on gasoline.


LP, Alcohol, CNG and Hydro have significantly fewer carbon (impurities) than 87 octane gasoline.  The engines burn cleaner....my E350 does not have or need a catalytic converter and California does not require the emissions test for these vehicles.     The result of cleaner burning fuel is that the engines require less maintenance and have a significantly longer life cycle.  For Ford, GM & Chrysler this would mean lost revenue for maintenance at the dealerships and lost revenue at both dealerships and the factory from the resulting fewer vehicle sales.


Also note that if Ford was really serious about getting CNG vehicles on the road, they would have been investing in the developments of the CNG tanks and compressors......which is something I cannot find any evidence of their having done. 


Conclusion:  the American Auto industry has a business model that requires a volume of consumers that are in a 2-3 year buying cycle (look at the 2-3 year leasing plans).  Changing over to more efficient vehicles or vehicles that run on cleaner, alternative fuels would significantly extend the buying cycle for most consumers.  That would be a major problem to the bottom line for the auto manufacturers, service centers and financiers.

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