Monday, March 2, 2009

Begining of the Run on Banks -Ukraine

The run on banks has begun with Ukrainian banks unable to provide customers with cash for withdrawal.

This will spread west to Eastern Europe former Soviet Bloc countires as account holders aware of the cicumstance in the Ukraine via news or personal contacts, start withdrawing from those countries banks.

I suspect that due to the recent strength of the dollar as opposed to the local currencies, the customers withdrawing cash, may be withdrawing dollar accounts or attempting to convert their local currency to dollars.  This should continue the rise of the dollar against these and other currencies, but it will have the effect of causing people in Western European Countries to do likewise and pull out dollar accounts.

It will not take many customers to do this at the weakest banks before the withdrawl window closes.  This should engender enough fear in account holders whose banks had more cash reserves to cause lines at those withdrawal windows.    Seeing the lines, those banks will call their national regulators, who will call the US Treasury and Fed and request the delivery of  dollars.  If the Treasury and Federal Reserve supply more printed dollars, the result will be inflation of the price of metals.   If the Fed has accounts....off shore anyone...that are long on gold and silver, they may want this.

The other alternative may be a bank and credit card holiday.  Does anyone have any ideas on how that would work?

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